News from the Future

The funeral business has always been considered immune to economic slowdowns. Death doesn’t take a vacation during a recession.

But now the industry faces a trend that could eat away at its armor for decades to come; fewer and fewer people are dying.

These were suppose to be the boon years for the death industry, with millions of baby boomers finally hitting their 80s. But with people now typically living well past their 100th birthday — thanks to genetic vaccines, intracellular disease scavengers, organ cloning and a host of other medical breakthroughs occurring over the last 20 years — funeral homes are finding it increasingly difficult to get bodies in the door.

Doug Graves, a funeral director in Naperville, Ill., is one of them. The number of services at his funeral home has fallen by 45 percent over the last five years.

“All the really old people are already dead, and the rest are living longer than anyone ever expected,” Graves complained. “If this keeps up, I’ll have to close down. Nobody ever thinks about us funeral directors when they’re inventing a new cure for cancer.”

More than 500 funeral homes closed their doors during the first half of this year, according to the American Funeral Directors’ Association. And another 600 are expected to shut down by the end of the year, the group says.

The decline in funerals is having rippling effects throughout other segments of the economy. Casket manufacturers and distributors are reporting sharp declines in orders, and crematoriums are also struggling. Many car manufacturers have been forced to start marketing hearses as luxury cars.

Funerals will eventually return to sustainable numbers, promises Dr. Makhu Betah, acclaimed medical economist.

“We’re simply in a transition period,” Betah says. “People who 20 years ago would be dead are now set to live for another 20 years, so by the middle of this decade, those funeral homes that are still in business should see business increase — unless we’re able to increase the average life expectancy even more by then.”

And American funeral homes could have it a lot worse, Betah adds. The U.S. life expectancy still trails 30 other countries, meaning funeral directors in other parts of the world are hurting even more.

“Our continuing struggle with the obesity rate and overall sloth is keeping the funeral industry from going completely under,” she says.